The notion of a changing world order would imply that the world order established post-world war two is phasing out, and a new (perhaps China-led) order is established. An emerging power has threatened a reigning power throughout history. That last point would seem to conflict with the conclusions of Mr. In Ray Dalio’s book (which you can pre-order), he tells a story of the world’s evolution via the events that led the Dutch empire to rise and decline into the British empire, the British empire to rise and decline into the US empire, and the US empire to rise and enter its early decline into the rise of the Chinese empire. In his analysis, democracies throughout history have always prevailed when confronted by autocratic empires.

Kroenig looks at history through the lens of democracy versus autocracy. a preview of the topic can be found in his LinkedIn post referenced above. Ray Dalio does the same in a book due to be released this summer titled The Changing World Order. In The Return of Great Power Rivalry, author Matthew Kroenig draws on an extraordinary range of historical evidence and combines it with cutting-edge social science research to explore possible futures. A recent book takes a detailed look at the major empires of the past, the length of their reign, and their eventual undoing. These studies provide an understanding of what is currently happening and what is likely to happen. The lens of this application of history focuses on the study of previous empires and dynasties, like the rise and fall of the British and Dutch empires. We increasingly see this use of Applied History – applying insights grounded in the study of the past to the challenges of the present. He mentions the most recent analogous time was the period from 1930 to 1945, he follows that with: “This was very concerning to me.” Each cycle had swings between happy and prosperous times, and miserable periods that followed. In a LinkedIn Post from 2020, he describes the importance of understanding history and the cycles that repeat throughout it. Ray Dalio is the Co-Chief Investment Officer & Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates. What intrigued me as a Futurist is the claim by the books authors that our past can indeed predict our future – it’s a compelling argument when viewed through the lens of these historical cycles. The authors equate the cycles of our history with the length of a long human life. That story was told brilliantly in a book titled The Fourth Turning. The cycles of history tell an interesting story. “ I believe that the times ahead will be radically different from the times we have experienced so far in our lifetimes, though similar to many other times in history.“ Ray Dalio – The Changing World Order

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